Riding profile

Leeds West and Pudsey

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Leeds West and Pudsey: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 34.9%
  • Reform UK 27.0%
  • Conservative 16.1%
  • Green 12.0%
  • Lib Dems 5.2%
  • Other 4.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereLeeds West and Pudsey 34.9%27.0%16.1%12.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +13.1 25.4% +1.6 19.3% −3.2 10.8% +1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Leeds West and Pudsey, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Rachel Reeves

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
32.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rachel Reeves Elected Labour 18,976 49.3
Lee Farmer Conservative 6,584 17.1
Andrea Whitehead Reform UK 6,281 16.3
Ann Forsaith Green 3,794 9.9
Dan Walker Lib Dems 1,743 4.5
Jamal El Kheir Other 633 1.6
Darren Longhorn Other 404 1.1
Sasha Watson Other 79 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,663
Median age
37
Employment rate
76.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029