Riding profile

Leeds North East

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Leeds North East: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Leeds North East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 21% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Fabian Hamilton

Sits with Labour

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 35.8%
  • Green 21.2%
  • Reform UK 18.0%
  • Conservative 12.4%
  • Other 6.9%
  • Lib Dems 5.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereLeeds North East 35.8%21.2%18.0%12.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +14.1 11.8% +9.4 25.3% −7.4 18.9% −6.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
35.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Fabian Hamilton Elected Labour 23,260 51.5
Chris Whiteside Conservative 7,177 15.9
Louise Jennings Green 5,911 13.1
Keiran White Reform UK 3,426 7.6
Gary Busuttil Lib Dems 2,168 4.8
Dawud Islam Other 2,067 4.6
Ian Cowling Other 574 1.3
Mike Davies Other 259 0.6
Cordelia Lynan Other 125 0.3
Christopher Nicholson Other 109 0.2
Stewart Hey Other 91 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,825
Median age
39
Employment rate
85.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029