Riding profile
Leeds North East
The question
Leeds North East: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLeeds North East | 40.1% | 16.5% | 15.8% | 14.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +18.3 | 25.4% −8.9 | 10.8% +5.0 | 19.3% −5.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Leeds North East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 40% vote share, against 16% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Fabian Hamilton
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Hamilton Elected | Labour | 23,260 | 51.5 | — |
| Chris Whiteside | Conservative | 7,177 | 15.9 | — |
| Louise Jennings | Green | 5,911 | 13.1 | — |
| Keiran White | Reform UK | 3,426 | 7.6 | — |
| Gary Busuttil | Lib Dems | 2,168 | 4.8 | — |
| Dawud Islam | Other | 2,067 | 4.6 | — |
| Ian Cowling | Other | 574 | 1.3 | — |
| Mike Davies | Other | 259 | 0.6 | — |
| Cordelia Lynan | Other | 125 | 0.3 | — |
| Christopher Nicholson | Other | 109 | 0.2 | — |
| Stewart Hey | Other | 91 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029