Riding profile

Shipley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Shipley: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.9
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.5%
  • Reform UK 26.6%
  • Conservative 23.7%
  • Green 10.0%
  • Other 4.5%
  • Lib Dems 4.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereShipley 30.5%26.6%23.7%10.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +8.7 25.4% +1.2 19.3% +4.4 10.8% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Shipley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Anna Dixon

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
17.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anna Dixon Elected Labour 21,738 45.0
Philip Davies Conservative 13,135 27.2
Simon Dandy Reform UK 7,238 15.0
Kevin Warnes Green 3,605 7.5
Graham Reed Lib Dems 1,341 2.8
Will Grant Other 447 0.9
John Nagbea Other 297 0.6
Waqas Khan Other 269 0.6
Paul Shkurka Other 137 0.3
Darryl Morton-Wright Other 96 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,464
Median age
44
Employment rate
83.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029