Riding profile
Shipley
The question
Shipley: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereShipley | 30.5% | 26.6% | 23.7% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +8.7 | 25.4% +1.2 | 19.3% +4.4 | 10.8% −0.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Shipley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Anna Dixon
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Dixon Elected | Labour | 21,738 | 45.0 | — |
| Philip Davies | Conservative | 13,135 | 27.2 | — |
| Simon Dandy | Reform UK | 7,238 | 15.0 | — |
| Kevin Warnes | Green | 3,605 | 7.5 | — |
| Graham Reed | Lib Dems | 1,341 | 2.8 | — |
| Will Grant | Other | 447 | 0.9 | — |
| John Nagbea | Other | 297 | 0.6 | — |
| Waqas Khan | Other | 269 | 0.6 | — |
| Paul Shkurka | Other | 137 | 0.3 | — |
| Darryl Morton-Wright | Other | 96 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029