Riding profile
Halifax
The question
Halifax: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHalifax | 28.8% | 24.7% | 17.7% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +3.5 | 21.8% +2.9 | 19.3% −1.6 | 10.8% +1.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Halifax, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Kate Dearden
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Dearden Elected | Labour | 14,135 | 35.1 | — |
| Hazel Sharp | Conservative | 7,866 | 19.6 | — |
| James Griffith-Jones | Reform UK | 7,811 | 19.4 | — |
| Martin Hey | Green | 4,133 | 10.3 | — |
| Shakir Saghir | Other | 2,543 | 6.3 | — |
| Samuel Jackson | Lib Dems | 2,359 | 5.9 | — |
| Perveen Hussain | Other | 1,367 | 3.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029