Riding profile
Halifax
The question
Halifax: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Halifax, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kate Dearden
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHalifax | 29.9% | 22.1% | 16.3% | 16.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.6 | 21.7% +0.5 | 11.8% +4.4 | 18.9% −2.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Dearden Elected | Labour | 14,135 | 35.1 | — |
| Hazel Sharp | Conservative | 7,866 | 19.6 | — |
| James Griffith-Jones | Reform UK | 7,811 | 19.4 | — |
| Martin Hey | Green | 4,133 | 10.3 | — |
| Shakir Saghir | Other | 2,543 | 6.3 | — |
| Samuel Jackson | Lib Dems | 2,359 | 5.9 | — |
| Perveen Hussain | Other | 1,367 | 3.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029