Riding profile
Colne Valley
The question
Colne Valley: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Colne Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Paul Davies
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereColne Valley | 28.6% | 25.7% | 24.9% | 12.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.3 | 21.7% +4.0 | 18.9% +6.0 | 11.8% +0.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Davies Elected | Labour | 18,970 | 41.0 | — |
| Jason McCartney | Conservative | 14,007 | 30.3 | — |
| Stuart Hale | Reform UK | 7,298 | 15.8 | — |
| Heather Peacock | Green | 3,480 | 7.5 | — |
| Katharine Macy | Lib Dems | 2,007 | 4.3 | — |
| Timothy Millea | Other | 459 | 1.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029