Riding profile
Colne Valley
The question
Colne Valley: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereColne Valley | 27.3% | 27.2% | 25.6% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +5.5 | 25.4% +1.9 | 19.3% +6.3 | 10.8% −0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Colne Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 27% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Paul Davies
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Davies Elected | Labour | 18,970 | 41.0 | — |
| Jason McCartney | Conservative | 14,007 | 30.3 | — |
| Stuart Hale | Reform UK | 7,298 | 15.8 | — |
| Heather Peacock | Green | 3,480 | 7.5 | — |
| Katharine Macy | Lib Dems | 2,007 | 4.3 | — |
| Timothy Millea | Other | 459 | 1.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029