Colne Valley
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colne Valley | 33.2% | 26.4% | 24.0% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+6.7 | 20.0%+6.3 | 22.3%+1.7 | 9.7%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,053 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 72.2% |
Current member
Paul Davies · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 6.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Davies Elected | Labour | 18,970 | 41.0 |
| Jason McCartney | Conservative | 14,007 | 30.3 |
| Stuart Hale | Reform UK | 7,298 | 15.8 |
| Heather Peacock | Green | 3,480 | 7.5 |
| Katharine Macy | Lib Dems | 2,007 | 4.3 |
| Timothy Millea | Other | 459 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Huddersfield Labour, toss-up
- Halifax Labour, toss-up
- Calder Valley Labour, safe seat
- Spen Valley Reform UK, toss-up
- Bradford South Reform UK, toss-up
- Dewsbury and Batley Other, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated