Riding profile

Calder Valley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Calder Valley: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 29.4%
  • Reform UK 27.4%
  • Conservative 22.5%
  • Green 11.1%
  • Lib Dems 6.6%
  • Other 2.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereCalder Valley 29.4%27.4%22.5%11.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +7.6 25.4% +2.1 19.3% +3.2 10.8% +0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Calder Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Josh Fenton-Glynn

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Josh Fenton-Glynn Elected Labour 22,046 44.4 —
Vanessa Lee Conservative 13,055 26.3 —
Donald Walmsley Reform UK 7,644 15.4 —
Kieran Turner Green 3,701 7.5 —
Donal O'Hanlon Lib Dems 2,587 5.2 —
James Vasey Other 404 0.8 —
Jim McNeill Other 171 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,777
Median age
46
Employment rate
75.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029