Riding profile
Calder Valley
The question
Calder Valley: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Calder Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Josh Fenton-Glynn
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCalder Valley | 28.6% | 27.8% | 21.9% | 12.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.3 | 21.7% +6.2 | 18.9% +3.0 | 11.8% +0.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Fenton-Glynn Elected | Labour | 22,046 | 44.4 | — |
| Vanessa Lee | Conservative | 13,055 | 26.3 | — |
| Donald Walmsley | Reform UK | 7,644 | 15.4 | — |
| Kieran Turner | Green | 3,701 | 7.5 | — |
| Donal O'Hanlon | Lib Dems | 2,587 | 5.2 | — |
| James Vasey | Other | 404 | 0.8 | — |
| Jim McNeill | Other | 171 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029