Riding profile
Keighley and Ilkley
The question
Keighley and Ilkley: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Keighley and Ilkley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 37% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Robbie Moore
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKeighley and Ilkley | 36.5% | 22.6% | 21.7% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +17.6 | 25.3% −2.7 | 21.7% +0.1 | 11.8% −1.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Moore Elected | Conservative | 18,589 | 40.3 | — |
| John Grogan | Labour | 16,964 | 36.7 | — |
| Andrew Judson | Reform UK | 4,782 | 10.3 | — |
| John Wood | Green | 2,447 | 5.3 | — |
| Vaz Shabir | Other | 2,036 | 4.4 | — |
| Chris Adams | Lib Dems | 970 | 2.1 | — |
| Dominic Atlas | Other | 398 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029