Riding profile

Keighley and Ilkley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Keighley and Ilkley: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 33.7%
  • Labour 23.5%
  • Reform UK 23.4%
  • Green 9.4%
  • Other 6.7%
  • Lib Dems 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Green
HereKeighley and Ilkley 33.7%23.5%23.4%9.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +14.4 21.8% +1.7 25.4% −1.9 10.8% −1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Keighley and Ilkley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 34% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Robbie Moore

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Robbie Moore Elected Conservative 18,589 40.3 —
John Grogan Labour 16,964 36.7 —
Andrew Judson Reform UK 4,782 10.3 —
John Wood Green 2,447 5.3 —
Vaz Shabir Other 2,036 4.4 —
Chris Adams Lib Dems 970 2.1 —
Dominic Atlas Other 398 0.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,610
Median age
42
Employment rate
71.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029