Riding profile

Skipton and Ripon

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Skipton and Ripon: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Skipton and Ripon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sir Julian Smith

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.1%
  • Conservative 28.7%
  • Labour 17.9%
  • Green 10.8%
  • Lib Dems 8.7%
  • Other 3.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereSkipton and Ripon 30.1%28.7%17.9%10.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +4.8 18.9% +9.8 21.7% −3.7 11.8% −1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julian Smith Elected Conservative 18,833 35.2
Malcolm Birks Labour 17,183 32.1
Simon Garvey Reform UK 8,516 15.9
Andrew Murday Lib Dems 4,194 7.8
Andy Brown Green 3,446 6.5
Ryan Kett Other 627 1.2
Keith Tordoff Other 493 0.9
Guy Phoenix Other 158 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,314
Median age
50
Employment rate
78.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029