Riding profile
Skipton and Ripon
The question
Skipton and Ripon: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Skipton and Ripon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sir Julian Smith
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSkipton and Ripon | 30.1% | 28.7% | 17.9% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.8 | 18.9% +9.8 | 21.7% −3.7 | 11.8% −1.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Smith Elected | Conservative | 18,833 | 35.2 | — |
| Malcolm Birks | Labour | 17,183 | 32.1 | — |
| Simon Garvey | Reform UK | 8,516 | 15.9 | — |
| Andrew Murday | Lib Dems | 4,194 | 7.8 | — |
| Andy Brown | Green | 3,446 | 6.5 | — |
| Ryan Kett | Other | 627 | 1.2 | — |
| Keith Tordoff | Other | 493 | 0.9 | — |
| Guy Phoenix | Other | 158 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029