Skipton and Ripon
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 18%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skipton and Ripon | 32.3% | 24.7% | 23.2% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.0%+12.2 | 26.5%−1.8 | 22.3%+1.0 | 9.7%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,314 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 50 |
| Employment rate | 78.8% |
Current member
Sir Julian Smith · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 3.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 7.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Smith Elected | Conservative | 18,833 | 35.2 |
| Malcolm Birks | Labour | 17,183 | 32.1 |
| Simon Garvey | Reform UK | 8,516 | 15.9 |
| Andrew Murday | Lib Dems | 4,194 | 7.8 |
| Andy Brown | Green | 3,446 | 6.4 |
| Ryan Kett | Other | 627 | 1.2 |
| Keith Tordoff | Other | 493 | 0.9 |
| Guy Phoenix | Other | 158 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Keighley and Ilkley Conservative, competitive
- Shipley Labour, safe seat
- Bradford West Other, toss-up
- Leeds North West Labour, safe seat
- Bradford East Labour, safe seat
- Bradford South Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated