Riding profile

Skipton and Ripon

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Skipton and Ripon: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.8%
  • Reform UK 27.6%
  • Labour 19.4%
  • Green 10.5%
  • Lib Dems 8.8%
  • Other 3.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereSkipton and Ripon 29.8%27.6%19.4%10.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +10.5 25.4% +2.2 21.8% −2.4 10.8% −0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Skipton and Ripon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sir Julian Smith

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julian Smith Elected Conservative 18,833 35.2 —
Malcolm Birks Labour 17,183 32.1 —
Simon Garvey Reform UK 8,516 15.9 —
Andrew Murday Lib Dems 4,194 7.8 —
Andy Brown Green 3,446 6.5 —
Ryan Kett Other 627 1.2 —
Keith Tordoff Other 493 0.9 —
Guy Phoenix Other 158 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,314
Median age
50
Employment rate
78.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029