Riding profile

Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 39.3%
  • Labour 29.5%
  • Conservative 13.5%
  • Green 9.8%
  • Lib Dems 5.9%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HerePontefract, Castleford and Knottingley 39.3%29.5%13.5%9.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +14.0 21.8% +7.7 19.3% −5.8 10.8% −1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 39% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Yvette Cooper

Sits with Labour

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yvette Cooper Elected Labour 17,089 47.5 —
John Thomas Reform UK 10,459 29.1 —
Laura Weldon Conservative 5,406 15.0 —
Olli Watkins Green 1,651 4.6 —
Jamie Needle Lib Dems 1,213 3.4 —
Trevor Lake Other 139 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,088
Median age
40
Employment rate
71.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029