Riding profile
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley
The question
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 43% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Yvette Cooper
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | 43.1% | 26.5% | 11.2% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +17.7 | 21.7% +4.8 | 18.9% −7.7 | 11.8% −1.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yvette Cooper Elected | Labour | 17,089 | 47.5 | — |
| John Thomas | Reform UK | 10,459 | 29.1 | — |
| Laura Weldon | Conservative | 5,406 | 15.0 | — |
| Olli Watkins | Green | 1,651 | 4.6 | — |
| Jamie Needle | Lib Dems | 1,213 | 3.4 | — |
| Trevor Lake | Other | 139 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029