Riding profile
Selby
The question
Selby: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Selby, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Keir Mather
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSelby | 34.6% | 26.6% | 20.7% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.2 | 21.7% +5.0 | 18.9% +1.8 | 11.8% −0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keir Mather Elected | Labour | 22,788 | 46.3 | — |
| Charles Richardson | Conservative | 12,593 | 25.6 | — |
| David Burns | Reform UK | 9,565 | 19.4 | — |
| Angela Oldershaw | Green | 2,484 | 5.0 | — |
| Christian Vassey | Lib Dems | 1,792 | 3.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029