Riding profile

Selby

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Selby: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.7%
  • Labour 25.4%
  • Conservative 21.0%
  • Green 11.1%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%
  • Other 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereSelby 34.7%25.4%21.0%11.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.3 21.8% +3.6 19.3% +1.7 10.8% +0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Selby, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Keir Mather

Sits with Labour

Since
2023-07-20
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
20.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Keir Mather Elected Labour 22,788 46.3 —
Charles Richardson Conservative 12,593 25.6 —
David Burns Reform UK 9,565 19.4 —
Angela Oldershaw Green 2,484 5.0 —
Christian Vassey Lib Dems 1,792 3.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,908
Median age
43
Employment rate
82.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029