Riding profile
Doncaster Central
The question
Doncaster Central: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Doncaster Central, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sally Jameson
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDoncaster Central | 34.2% | 27.3% | 17.5% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.9 | 21.7% +5.6 | 18.9% −1.4 | 11.8% −1.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sally Jameson Elected | Labour | 17,515 | 46.2 | — |
| Nick Allen | Conservative | 7,964 | 21.0 | — |
| Surjit Duhre | Reform UK | 7,886 | 20.8 | — |
| Jennifer Rozenfelds | Green | 1,880 | 5.0 | — |
| Greg Ruback | Lib Dems | 1,199 | 3.2 | — |
| Tosh McDonald | Other | 758 | 2.0 | — |
| Andrew Walmsley | Other | 742 | 2.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029