Riding profile

Doncaster Central

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Doncaster Central: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.4%
  • Labour 30.0%
  • Conservative 18.5%
  • Green 8.7%
  • Other 5.5%
  • Lib Dems 4.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereDoncaster Central 32.4%30.0%18.5%8.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +7.1 21.8% +8.2 19.3% −0.8 10.8% −2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Doncaster Central, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sally Jameson

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
25.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sally Jameson Elected Labour 17,515 46.2 —
Nick Allen Conservative 7,964 21.0 —
Surjit Duhre Reform UK 7,886 20.8 —
Jennifer Rozenfelds Green 1,880 5.0 —
Greg Ruback Lib Dems 1,199 3.2 —
Tosh McDonald Other 758 2.0 —
Andrew Walmsley Other 742 2.0 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
113,658
Median age
40
Employment rate
71.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029