Riding profile

Doncaster North

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Doncaster North: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 32.7%
  • Reform UK 19.8%
  • Conservative 19.6%
  • Other 13.2%
  • Green 9.6%
  • Lib Dems 4.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Other
HereDoncaster North 32.7%19.8%19.6%13.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +10.9 25.4% −5.5 19.3% +0.3 5.0% +8.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Doncaster North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 20% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ed Miliband

Sits with Labour

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
29.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ed Miliband Elected Labour 16,231 52.4
Glenn Bluff Conservative 7,105 22.9
Dave Bettney Other 1,960 6.3
Tony Nicholson Green 1,778 5.7
Frank Calladine Other 1,160 3.7
Christopher Dawson Other 1,059 3.4
Jonathan Harston Lib Dems 1,045 3.4
Catherine Briggs Other 452 1.5
Andy Hiles Other 212 0.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,680
Median age
41
Employment rate
76.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029