Riding profile

Doncaster North

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Doncaster North: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Doncaster North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 27% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Ed Miliband

Sits with Labour

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.9
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 27.4%
  • Reform UK 25.0%
  • Conservative 18.0%
  • Other 13.1%
  • Green 10.2%
  • Lib Dems 6.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Other
HereDoncaster North 27.4%25.0%18.0%13.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +5.7 25.3% −0.3 18.9% −0.9 4.8% +8.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
29.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ed Miliband Elected Labour 16,231 52.4
Glenn Bluff Conservative 7,105 22.9
Dave Bettney Other 1,960 6.3
Tony Nicholson Green 1,778 5.7
Frank Calladine Other 1,160 3.7
Christopher Dawson Other 1,059 3.4
Jonathan Harston Lib Dems 1,045 3.4
Catherine Briggs Other 452 1.5
Andy Hiles Other 212 0.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,680
Median age
41
Employment rate
76.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029