Riding profile

Bassetlaw

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Bassetlaw: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 36.5%
  • Conservative 23.4%
  • Labour 22.4%
  • Green 9.8%
  • Lib Dems 6.3%
  • Other 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereBassetlaw 36.5%23.4%22.4%9.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +11.1 19.3% +4.1 21.8% +0.5 10.8% −1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bassetlaw, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jo White

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
12.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jo White Elected Labour 18,476 41.2 —
Brendan Clarke-Smith Conservative 12,708 28.3 —
Frank Ward Reform UK 9,751 21.7 —
Helen Tamblyn-Saville Lib Dems 1,996 4.5 —
Rachel Reeves Green 1,947 4.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,068
Median age
44
Employment rate
73.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029