Riding profile

Bassetlaw

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Bassetlaw: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

Bassetlaw, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jo White

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 36.6%
  • Labour 23.7%
  • Conservative 23.0%
  • Green 9.2%
  • Lib Dems 6.2%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereBassetlaw 36.6%23.7%23.0%9.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +11.3 21.7% +2.0 18.9% +4.1 11.8% −2.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
12.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jo White Elected Labour 18,476 41.2
Brendan Clarke-Smith Conservative 12,708 28.3
Frank Ward Reform UK 9,751 21.7
Helen Tamblyn-Saville Lib Dems 1,996 4.5
Rachel Reeves Green 1,947 4.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,068
Median age
44
Employment rate
73.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029