Riding profile
Gainsborough
The question
Gainsborough: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Gainsborough, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sir Edward Leigh
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.7
- P(close race)
- 94%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGainsborough | 34.0% | 29.3% | 16.6% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.7 | 18.9% +10.4 | 21.7% −5.1 | 11.6% −0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Leigh Elected | Conservative | 16,636 | 35.6 | — |
| Jess McGuire | Labour | 13,104 | 28.1 | — |
| Pat O'Connor | Reform UK | 9,916 | 21.2 | — |
| Lesley Rollings | Lib Dems | 5,001 | 10.7 | — |
| Vanessa Smith | Green | 1,832 | 3.9 | — |
| Tim Mellors | Other | 196 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029