Riding profile
Newark
The question
Newark: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNewark | 32.4% | 28.0% | 19.6% | 9.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +13.1 | 25.4% +2.6 | 21.8% −2.3 | 10.8% −1.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Newark, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Robert Jenrick
Sits with Reform UK
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Jenrick Elected | Conservative | 20,968 | 39.2 | — |
| Saj Ahmad | Labour | 17,396 | 32.5 | — |
| Robert Palmer | Reform UK | 8,280 | 15.5 | — |
| David Watts | Lib Dems | 3,026 | 5.7 | — |
| Michael Ackroyd | Green | 2,345 | 4.4 | — |
| Adrian Amer | Other | 809 | 1.5 | — |
| Lyn Galbraith | Other | 329 | 0.6 | — |
| Matthew Darrington | Other | 156 | 0.3 | — |
| Collan Siddique | Other | 150 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029