Riding profile
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme
The question
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lee Pitcher
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDoncaster East and the Isle of Axholme | 36.4% | 26.8% | 21.1% | 8.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +11.0 | 18.9% +7.9 | 21.7% −0.6 | 11.8% −3.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Pitcher Elected | Labour | 15,122 | 38.6 | — |
| Nick Fletcher | Conservative | 12,811 | 32.7 | — |
| Irwen Martin | Reform UK | 8,487 | 21.7 | — |
| Paul Garrett | Green | 1,400 | 3.6 | — |
| Nicola Turner | Lib Dems | 1,166 | 3.0 | — |
| Michael Longfellow | Other | 146 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029