Riding profile

Goole and Pocklington

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Goole and Pocklington: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Goole and Pocklington, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 31% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

David Davis

Sits with Conservative

Since
2008-07-10
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.8%
  • Conservative 30.6%
  • Labour 16.5%
  • Green 9.0%
  • Lib Dems 8.4%
  • Other 2.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereGoole and Pocklington 32.8%30.6%16.5%9.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +7.5 18.9% +11.7 21.7% −5.1 11.8% −2.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David Davis Elected Conservative 18,981 38.2
Liam Draycott Labour 15,409 31.0
Rich Kelly Reform UK 9,054 18.2
Dale Needham Lib Dems 3,380 6.8
Angela Stone Green 2,451 4.9
Shona Wade Other 467 0.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,899
Median age
46
Employment rate
85.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029