Riding profile
Goole and Pocklington
The question
Goole and Pocklington: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Goole and Pocklington, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 31% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
David Davis
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGoole and Pocklington | 32.8% | 30.6% | 16.5% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.5 | 18.9% +11.7 | 21.7% −5.1 | 11.8% −2.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Davis Elected | Conservative | 18,981 | 38.2 | — |
| Liam Draycott | Labour | 15,409 | 31.0 | — |
| Rich Kelly | Reform UK | 9,054 | 18.2 | — |
| Dale Needham | Lib Dems | 3,380 | 6.8 | — |
| Angela Stone | Green | 2,451 | 4.9 | — |
| Shona Wade | Other | 467 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029