Riding profile

Goole and Pocklington

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Goole and Pocklington: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.1%
  • Reform UK 30.3%
  • Labour 18.4%
  • Green 9.3%
  • Lib Dems 8.4%
  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereGoole and Pocklington 31.1%30.3%18.4%9.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +11.8 25.4% +4.9 21.8% −3.4 10.8% −1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Goole and Pocklington, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

David Davis

Sits with Conservative

Since
2008-07-10
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David Davis Elected Conservative 18,981 38.2 —
Liam Draycott Labour 15,409 31.0 —
Rich Kelly Reform UK 9,054 18.2 —
Dale Needham Lib Dems 3,380 6.8 —
Angela Stone Green 2,451 4.9 —
Shona Wade Other 467 0.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,899
Median age
46
Employment rate
85.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029