Riding profile
Brigg and Immingham
The question
Brigg and Immingham: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Brigg and Immingham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 39% vote share, against 31% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Martin Vickers
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBrigg and Immingham | 39.2% | 30.6% | 15.7% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +13.8 | 18.9% +11.7 | 21.7% −6.0 | 11.8% −2.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Vickers Elected | Conservative | 15,905 | 37.4 | — |
| Najmul Hussain | Labour | 12,662 | 29.8 | — |
| Paul Ladlow | Reform UK | 10,594 | 24.9 | — |
| Amie Watson | Green | 1,905 | 4.5 | — |
| Eleanor Rylance | Lib Dems | 1,442 | 3.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- ScunthorpeReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull EastReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Bridlington and The WoldsReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Goole and PocklingtonReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029