Riding profile

Brigg and Immingham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Brigg and Immingham: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 38.1%
  • Conservative 30.4%
  • Labour 17.0%
  • Green 8.5%
  • Lib Dems 4.6%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereBrigg and Immingham 38.1%30.4%17.0%8.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +12.8 19.3% +11.1 21.8% −4.8 10.8% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Brigg and Immingham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Martin Vickers

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Martin Vickers Elected Conservative 15,905 37.4 —
Najmul Hussain Labour 12,662 29.8 —
Paul Ladlow Reform UK 10,594 24.9 —
Amie Watson Green 1,905 4.5 —
Eleanor Rylance Lib Dems 1,442 3.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
91,663
Median age
48
Employment rate
73.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029