Riding profile

Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 31% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dame Diana Johnson

Sits with Labour

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.0%
  • Labour 31.0%
  • Lib Dems 10.5%
  • Conservative 10.0%
  • Green 9.5%
  • Other 4.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Lib Dems Conservative
HereKingston upon Hull North and Cottingham 34.0%31.0%10.5%10.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +8.6 21.7% +9.3 11.6% −1.1 18.9% −8.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
27.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Diana Johnson Elected Labour 18,480 48.3
Martin Baker Reform UK 7,801 20.4
Callum Procter Conservative 4,897 12.8
Craig Woolmer Lib Dems 3,246 8.5
Kerry Harrison Green 2,322 6.1
Ahmet Cinalp Other 720 1.9
Rowan Halstead Other 339 0.9
Mike Whale Other 262 0.7
Pauline Peachey Other 161 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
117,518
Median age
36
Employment rate
69.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029