Riding profile
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham
The question
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKingston upon Hull North and Cottingham | 31.9% | 29.2% | 11.9% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +10.1 | 25.4% +3.8 | 10.8% +1.1 | 19.3% −7.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dame Diana Johnson
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Johnson Elected | Labour | 18,480 | 48.3 | — |
| Martin Baker | Reform UK | 7,801 | 20.4 | — |
| Callum Procter | Conservative | 4,897 | 12.8 | — |
| Craig Woolmer | Lib Dems | 3,246 | 8.5 | — |
| Kerry Harrison | Green | 2,322 | 6.1 | — |
| Ahmet Cinalp | Other | 720 | 1.9 | — |
| Rowan Halstead | Other | 339 | 0.9 | — |
| Mike Whale | Other | 262 | 0.7 | — |
| Pauline Peachey | Other | 161 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull EastReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Bridlington and The WoldsReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Beverley and HoldernessReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Brigg and ImminghamReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- ScunthorpeReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029