Riding profile

Beverley and Holderness

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Beverley and Holderness: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.6%
  • Conservative 28.5%
  • Labour 20.6%
  • Lib Dems 8.9%
  • Green 8.2%
  • Other 2.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereBeverley and Holderness 30.6%28.5%20.6%8.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.2 19.3% +9.2 21.8% −1.2 11.4% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Beverley and Holderness, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Graham Stuart

Sits with Conservative

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
0.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Graham Stuart Elected Conservative 15,501 34.5
Margaret Pinder Labour 15,377 34.3
Andrew Smith Reform UK 8,198 18.3
Denis Healy Lib Dems 3,386 7.5
Jonathan Stephenson Green 1,647 3.7
George McManus Other 625 1.4
Chris Collin Other 89 0.2
John Ottaway Other 74 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
90,245
Median age
50
Employment rate
78.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029