Riding profile
Beverley and Holderness
The question
Beverley and Holderness: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Beverley and Holderness, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Graham Stuart
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBeverley and Holderness | 33.7% | 28.0% | 19.2% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.4 | 18.9% +9.1 | 21.7% −2.4 | 11.6% −3.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Stuart Elected | Conservative | 15,501 | 34.5 | — |
| Margaret Pinder | Labour | 15,377 | 34.3 | — |
| Andrew Smith | Reform UK | 8,198 | 18.3 | — |
| Denis Healy | Lib Dems | 3,386 | 7.5 | — |
| Jonathan Stephenson | Green | 1,647 | 3.7 | — |
| George McManus | Other | 625 | 1.4 | — |
| Chris Collin | Other | 89 | 0.2 | — |
| John Ottaway | Other | 74 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Kingston upon Hull EastReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Bridlington and The WoldsReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Great Grimsby and CleethorpesReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Brigg and ImminghamReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029