Riding profile
Bridlington and The Wolds
The question
Bridlington and The Wolds: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.3
- P(close race)
- 8%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBridlington and The Wolds | 34.0% | 28.7% | 16.1% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +8.7 | 19.3% +9.4 | 21.8% −5.8 | 11.4% −2.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bridlington and The Wolds, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Charlie Dewhirst
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Dewhirst Elected | Conservative | 14,846 | 34.6 | — |
| Sarah Carter | Labour | 11,721 | 27.3 | — |
| Maria Bowtell | Reform UK | 10,350 | 24.1 | — |
| Jayne Phoenix | Lib Dems | 3,097 | 7.2 | — |
| Gill Leek | Green | 1,595 | 3.7 | — |
| Tim Norman | Other | 915 | 2.1 | — |
| Tom Cone | Other | 309 | 0.7 | — |
| Carlo Verda | Other | 104 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull EastReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Beverley and HoldernessReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Brigg and ImminghamReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- ScunthorpeReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029