Riding profile
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice
The question
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Emma Hardy
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice | 37.4% | 28.5% | 14.1% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +12.1 | 21.7% +6.8 | 18.9% −4.8 | 11.6% −1.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Hardy Elected | Labour | 17,875 | 46.8 | — |
| Julie Peck | Reform UK | 8,896 | 23.3 | — |
| Rachel Storer | Conservative | 6,924 | 18.1 | — |
| Linda Johnson | Lib Dems | 2,625 | 6.9 | — |
| Kevin Paulson | Green | 1,748 | 4.6 | — |
| Lucy Needham | Other | 110 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull EastReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Brigg and ImminghamReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- ScunthorpeReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Beverley and HoldernessReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Bridlington and The WoldsReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029