Riding profile
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice
The question
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice | 33.3% | 27.8% | 16.9% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +7.9 | 21.8% +6.0 | 19.3% −2.4 | 11.4% −1.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Emma Hardy
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Hardy Elected | Labour | 17,875 | 46.8 | — |
| Julie Peck | Reform UK | 8,896 | 23.3 | — |
| Rachel Storer | Conservative | 6,924 | 18.1 | — |
| Linda Johnson | Lib Dems | 2,625 | 6.9 | — |
| Kevin Paulson | Green | 1,748 | 4.6 | — |
| Lucy Needham | Other | 110 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029