Riding profile

Scunthorpe

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Scunthorpe: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.9%
  • Conservative 25.0%
  • Labour 22.9%
  • Green 8.3%
  • Other 4.9%
  • Lib Dems 3.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereScunthorpe 34.9%25.0%22.9%8.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.5 19.3% +5.7 21.8% +1.1 10.8% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Scunthorpe, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Nicholas Dakin

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nicholas Dakin Elected Labour 15,484 39.6 —
Holly Mumby-Croft Conservative 11,942 30.6 —
Darren Haley Reform UK 8,163 20.9 —
Nick Cox Green 1,218 3.1 —
Abdul Butt Other 1,202 3.1 —
Cahal Burke Lib Dems 942 2.4 —
Scott Curtis Other 100 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,752
Median age
41
Employment rate
68.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029