Riding profile
Scunthorpe
The question
Scunthorpe: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Scunthorpe, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sir Nicholas Dakin
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereScunthorpe | 36.0% | 25.0% | 22.0% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +10.6 | 18.9% +6.1 | 21.7% +0.4 | 11.8% −3.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Dakin Elected | Labour | 15,484 | 39.6 | — |
| Holly Mumby-Croft | Conservative | 11,942 | 30.6 | — |
| Darren Haley | Reform UK | 8,163 | 20.9 | — |
| Nick Cox | Green | 1,218 | 3.1 | — |
| Abdul Butt | Other | 1,202 | 3.1 | — |
| Cahal Burke | Lib Dems | 942 | 2.4 | — |
| Scott Curtis | Other | 100 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Brigg and ImminghamReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull EastReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Goole and PocklingtonReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Bridlington and The WoldsReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029