Riding profile
Kingston upon Hull East
The question
Kingston upon Hull East: will Independent lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Kingston upon Hull East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 43% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Karl Turner
Sits with Independent
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKingston upon Hull East | 43.2% | 26.4% | 12.9% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +17.9 | 21.7% +4.7 | 11.6% +1.3 | 11.8% −3.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Turner Elected | Labour | 13,047 | 43.8 | — |
| Neil Hunter | Reform UK | 9,127 | 30.6 | — |
| Bob Morgan | Lib Dems | 3,252 | 10.9 | — |
| Kieran Persand | Conservative | 2,715 | 9.1 | — |
| Julia Brown | Green | 1,675 | 5.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Beverley and HoldernessReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Bridlington and The WoldsReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Brigg and ImminghamReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- ScunthorpeReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029