Riding profile

Kingston upon Hull East

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Kingston upon Hull East: will Independent lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 37.9%
  • Labour 27.6%
  • Lib Dems 12.4%
  • Conservative 10.5%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Lib Dems Conservative
HereKingston upon Hull East 37.9%27.6%12.4%10.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +12.6 21.8% +5.8 11.4% +1.1 19.3% −8.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Kingston upon Hull East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Karl Turner

Sits with Independent

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
13.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Karl Turner Elected Labour 13,047 43.8 —
Neil Hunter Reform UK 9,127 30.6 —
Bob Morgan Lib Dems 3,252 10.9 —
Kieran Persand Conservative 2,715 9.1 —
Julia Brown Green 1,675 5.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,118
Median age
38
Employment rate
66.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029