Riding profile
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
The question
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 43% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Melanie Onn
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGreat Grimsby and Cleethorpes | 42.9% | 23.6% | 18.6% | 6.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +17.6 | 21.7% +1.9 | 18.9% −0.3 | 11.8% −5.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melanie Onn Elected | Labour | 15,336 | 41.9 | — |
| Oliver Freeston | Reform UK | 10,533 | 28.8 | — |
| Lia Nici | Conservative | 8,269 | 22.6 | — |
| Ed Fraser | Green | 1,115 | 3.0 | — |
| John Lawson | Lib Dems | 1,036 | 2.8 | — |
| Mark Gee | Other | 222 | 0.6 | — |
| Christopher Stephenson | Other | 108 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Louth and HorncastleReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Beverley and HoldernessReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull EastReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Brigg and ImminghamReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029