Riding profile

Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes

UK constituency — England · Urban · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 39.7%
  • Labour 23.6%
  • Conservative 20.7%
  • Green 8.5%
  • Lib Dems 4.5%
  • Other 2.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereGreat Grimsby and Cleethorpes 39.7%23.6%20.7%8.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +14.3 21.8% +1.8 19.3% +1.4 10.8% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 40% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Melanie Onn

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
13.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Melanie Onn Elected Labour 15,336 41.9 —
Oliver Freeston Reform UK 10,533 28.8 —
Lia Nici Conservative 8,269 22.6 —
Ed Fraser Green 1,115 3.0 —
John Lawson Lib Dems 1,036 2.8 —
Mark Gee Other 222 0.6 —
Christopher Stephenson Other 108 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,406
Median age
40
Employment rate
68.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029