Riding profile
Louth and Horncastle
The question
Louth and Horncastle: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Louth and Horncastle, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Victoria Atkins
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLouth and Horncastle | 38.1% | 30.3% | 11.9% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +12.8 | 18.9% +11.4 | 21.7% −9.8 | 11.8% −3.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria Atkins Elected | Conservative | 17,441 | 37.5 | — |
| Sean Matthews | Reform UK | 11,935 | 25.7 | — |
| Jonathan Slater | Labour | 10,475 | 22.5 | — |
| Robert Watson | Green | 2,504 | 5.4 | — |
| Ross Pepper | Lib Dems | 2,364 | 5.1 | — |
| Paul Hugill | Other | 1,359 | 2.9 | — |
| Iconic Arty-Pole | Other | 309 | 0.7 | — |
| Marcus Moorehouse | Other | 92 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Great Grimsby and CleethorpesReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Beverley and HoldernessReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull EastReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Boston and SkegnessReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029