Riding profile

Louth and Horncastle

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Louth and Horncastle: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.9
P(close race)
75%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 36.0%
  • Conservative 31.1%
  • Labour 12.3%
  • Green 9.5%
  • Lib Dems 5.9%
  • Other 5.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereLouth and Horncastle 36.0%31.1%12.3%9.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +10.6 19.3% +11.8 21.8% −9.5 10.8% −1.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Louth and Horncastle, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 31% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Victoria Atkins

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Victoria Atkins Elected Conservative 17,441 37.5 —
Sean Matthews Reform UK 11,935 25.7 —
Jonathan Slater Labour 10,475 22.5 —
Robert Watson Green 2,504 5.4 —
Ross Pepper Lib Dems 2,364 5.1 —
Paul Hugill Other 1,359 2.9 —
Iconic Arty-Pole Other 309 0.7 —
Marcus Moorehouse Other 92 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,149
Median age
53
Employment rate
72.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029