Riding profile
Sleaford and North Hykeham
The question
Sleaford and North Hykeham: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSleaford and North Hykeham | 32.9% | 29.3% | 15.4% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +7.5 | 19.3% +10.0 | 21.8% −6.4 | 10.8% −1.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Sleaford and North Hykeham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dr Caroline Johnson
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Johnson Elected | Conservative | 17,348 | 35.7 | — |
| Hanif Khan | Labour | 13,002 | 26.8 | — |
| Benjamin Jackson | Reform UK | 10,484 | 21.6 | — |
| Robert Oates | Other | 3,032 | 6.2 | — |
| Martin Blake | Green | 2,435 | 5.0 | — |
| Matthew Winnington | Lib Dems | 2,264 | 4.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029