Riding profile
Grantham and Bourne
The question
Grantham and Bourne: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGrantham and Bourne | 32.2% | 29.8% | 15.4% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +6.8 | 19.3% +10.5 | 21.8% −6.4 | 10.8% −1.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Grantham and Bourne, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Gareth Davies
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gareth Davies Elected | Conservative | 16,770 | 36.4 | — |
| Vipul Bechar | Labour | 12,274 | 26.6 | — |
| Mike Rudkin | Reform UK | 9,393 | 20.4 | — |
| Anne Gayfer | Green | 2,570 | 5.6 | — |
| John Vincent | Lib Dems | 2,027 | 4.4 | — |
| Ian Selby | Other | 1,642 | 3.6 | — |
| Charmaine Morgan | Other | 1,245 | 2.7 | — |
| Alexander Mitchell | Other | 204 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029