Riding profile

Melton and Syston

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Melton and Syston: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.7%
  • Reform UK 31.2%
  • Labour 15.8%
  • Green 10.5%
  • Lib Dems 6.1%
  • Other 4.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereMelton and Syston 31.7%31.2%15.8%10.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +12.4 25.4% +5.9 21.8% −6.1 10.8% −0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Melton and Syston, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 31% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Edward Argar

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Edward Argar Elected Conservative 17,526 38.1 —
Zafran Khan Labour 12,130 26.4 —
Pete Morris Reform UK 8,945 19.4 —
Alastair McQuillan Green 3,685 8.0 —
Andy Konieczko Lib Dems 2,547 5.5 —
Marilyn Gordon Other 517 1.1 —
Teck Khong Other 348 0.8 —
Matt Shouler Other 288 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,181
Median age
45
Employment rate
77.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029