Riding profile

Melton and Syston

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Melton and Syston: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Melton and Syston, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Edward Argar

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.5%
  • Reform UK 30.3%
  • Labour 15.4%
  • Green 12.3%
  • Lib Dems 6.7%
  • Other 3.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereMelton and Syston 31.5%30.3%15.4%12.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +12.6 25.3% +5.0 21.7% −6.2 11.8% +0.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Edward Argar Elected Conservative 17,526 38.1
Zafran Khan Labour 12,130 26.4
Pete Morris Reform UK 8,945 19.4
Alastair McQuillan Green 3,685 8.0
Andy Konieczko Lib Dems 2,547 5.5
Marilyn Gordon Other 517 1.1
Teck Khong Other 348 0.8
Matt Shouler Other 288 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,181
Median age
45
Employment rate
77.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029