Riding profile

Rushcliffe

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Rushcliffe: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Rushcliffe, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

James Naish

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 28.4%
  • Conservative 25.4%
  • Reform UK 22.7%
  • Green 13.4%
  • Lib Dems 7.2%
  • Other 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Reform UK Green
HereRushcliffe 28.4%25.4%22.7%13.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +6.8 18.9% +6.5 25.3% −2.6 11.8% +1.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
12.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
James Naish Elected Labour 25,291 43.8
Ruth Edwards Conservative 17,865 30.9
James Grice Reform UK 6,353 11.0
Richard Mallender Green 4,367 7.6
Greg Webb Lib Dems 3,133 5.4
Lynn Irving Other 549 0.9
Harbant Sehra Other 186 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,241
Median age
43
Employment rate
73.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029