Riding profile

Nottingham North and Kimberley

UK constituency — England · Urban · east midlands

The question

Nottingham North and Kimberley: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Nottingham North and Kimberley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 31% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alex Norris

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 31.5%
  • Reform UK 31.3%
  • Conservative 15.3%
  • Green 14.6%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereNottingham North and Kimberley 31.5%31.3%15.3%14.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +9.9 25.3% +6.0 18.9% −3.6 11.8% +2.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
26.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-25.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alex Norris Elected Labour 16,480 47.1
Golam Kadiri Reform UK 7,053 20.1
Caroline Henry Conservative 6,787 19.4
Sam Harvey Green 3,351 9.6
David Schmitz Lib Dems 1,336 3.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
108,805
Median age
37
Employment rate
69.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029