Erewash
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.6 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 88%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erewash | 31.6% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+5.2 | 22.3%+7.4 | 20.0%+2.3 | 9.7%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,351 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 85.4% |
Current member
Adam Thompson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thompson Elected | Labour | 17,224 | 40.1 |
| Maggie Throup | Conservative | 11,365 | 26.4 |
| Liam Booth-Isherwood | Reform UK | 9,162 | 21.3 |
| Brent Poland | Green | 2,478 | 5.8 |
| James Archer | Lib Dems | 2,426 | 5.6 |
| John Kirby | Other | 351 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Broxtowe Labour, safe seat
- Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour, competitive
- Nottingham South Labour, safe seat
- Amber Valley Reform UK, safe seat
- Derby South Labour, toss-up
- Mid Derbyshire Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated