Riding profile

Erewash

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Erewash: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.4%
  • Labour 24.8%
  • Conservative 21.9%
  • Green 9.3%
  • Lib Dems 6.8%
  • Other 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereErewash 34.4%24.8%21.9%9.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.1 21.8% +3.0 19.3% +2.6 10.8% −1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Erewash, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Adam Thompson

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
13.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Adam Thompson Elected Labour 17,224 40.0 —
Maggie Throup Conservative 11,365 26.4 —
Liam Booth-Isherwood Reform UK 9,162 21.3 —
Brent Poland Green 2,478 5.8 —
James Archer Lib Dems 2,426 5.6 —
John Kirby Other 351 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,351
Median age
42
Employment rate
85.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029