Riding profile
Erewash
The question
Erewash: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Erewash, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Adam Thompson
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereErewash | 32.1% | 25.1% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.8 | 21.7% +3.4 | 18.9% +3.3 | 11.8% −0.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thompson Elected | Labour | 17,224 | 40.0 | — |
| Maggie Throup | Conservative | 11,365 | 26.4 | — |
| Liam Booth-Isherwood | Reform UK | 9,162 | 21.3 | — |
| Brent Poland | Green | 2,478 | 5.8 | — |
| James Archer | Lib Dems | 2,426 | 5.6 | — |
| John Kirby | Other | 351 | 0.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029