Riding profile
Derby South
The question
Derby South: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Derby South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Baggy Shanker
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDerby South | 34.8% | 24.7% | 12.2% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.5 | 21.7% +3.1 | 4.8% +7.5 | 18.9% −8.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baggy Shanker Elected | Labour | 14,503 | 38.8 | — |
| Alan Graves | Reform UK | 8,501 | 22.7 | — |
| Chris Williamson | Other | 5,205 | 13.9 | — |
| Jamie Mulhall | Conservative | 5,192 | 13.9 | — |
| Sam Ward | Green | 1,899 | 5.1 | — |
| Joe Naitta | Lib Dems | 1,807 | 4.8 | — |
| Zephyr Tair | Other | 292 | 0.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029