Derby South
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 80% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 86%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby South | 31.5% | 29.2% | 13.4% | 12.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+5.0 | 22.3%+6.9 | 5.1%+8.2 | 20.0%−7.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 119,588 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 73.1% |
Current member
Baggy Shanker · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.1 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baggy Shanker Elected | Labour | 14,503 | 38.8 |
| Alan Graves | Reform UK | 8,501 | 22.7 |
| Chris Williamson | Other | 5,205 | 13.9 |
| Jamie Mulhall | Conservative | 5,192 | 13.9 |
| Sam Ward | Green | 1,899 | 5.1 |
| Joe Naitta | Lib Dems | 1,807 | 4.8 |
| Zephyr Tair | Other | 292 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Derby North Labour, safe seat
- Mid Derbyshire Conservative, toss-up
- South Derbyshire Labour, toss-up
- North West Leicestershire Reform UK, toss-up
- Erewash Labour, toss-up
- Amber Valley Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated