Riding profile
Derby South
The question
Derby South: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDerby South | 30.1% | 25.3% | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +4.7 | 21.8% +3.4 | 5.0% +8.1 | 19.3% −6.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Derby South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Baggy Shanker
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baggy Shanker Elected | Labour | 14,503 | 38.8 | — |
| Alan Graves | Reform UK | 8,501 | 22.7 | — |
| Chris Williamson | Other | 5,205 | 13.9 | — |
| Jamie Mulhall | Conservative | 5,192 | 13.9 | — |
| Sam Ward | Green | 1,899 | 5.1 | — |
| Joe Naitta | Lib Dems | 1,807 | 4.8 | — |
| Zephyr Tair | Other | 292 | 0.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029