Riding profile
South Derbyshire
The question
South Derbyshire: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Derbyshire | 32.6% | 25.0% | 21.6% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +7.2 | 19.3% +5.7 | 21.8% −0.2 | 10.8% −1.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
South Derbyshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Samantha Niblett
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samantha Niblett Elected | Labour | 17,734 | 38.8 | — |
| Heather Wheeler | Conservative | 13,566 | 29.7 | — |
| Job West | Reform UK | 8,979 | 19.6 | — |
| Lucy Care | Lib Dems | 2,134 | 4.7 | — |
| Aruhan Galieva | Green | 1,941 | 4.2 | — |
| Amy Wheelton | Other | 1,200 | 2.6 | — |
| Paul Liversuch | Other | 183 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029