Riding profile
Hinckley and Bosworth
The question
Hinckley and Bosworth: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Hinckley and Bosworth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dr Luke Evans
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.5
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHinckley and Bosworth | 29.7% | 29.2% | 20.7% | 11.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.4 | 18.9% +10.3 | 11.6% +9.0 | 21.7% −9.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Evans Elected | Conservative | 17,032 | 35.6 | — |
| Michael Mullaney | Lib Dems | 11,624 | 24.3 | — |
| Peter Cheshire | Reform UK | 8,817 | 18.4 | — |
| Rebecca Pawley | Labour | 8,601 | 18.0 | — |
| Cassie Wells | Green | 1,514 | 3.2 | — |
| Harry Masters | Other | 211 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029