Riding profile

Hinckley and Bosworth

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Hinckley and Bosworth: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
85%
Mean margin (pts)
0.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.4%
  • Conservative 29.3%
  • Lib Dems 22.0%
  • Labour 10.4%
  • Green 6.8%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems Labour
HereHinckley and Bosworth 29.4%29.3%22.0%10.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.1 19.3% +9.9 11.4% +10.6 21.8% −11.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hinckley and Bosworth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dr Luke Evans

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Luke Evans Elected Conservative 17,032 35.6 —
Michael Mullaney Lib Dems 11,624 24.3 —
Peter Cheshire Reform UK 8,817 18.4 —
Rebecca Pawley Labour 8,601 18.0 —
Cassie Wells Green 1,514 3.2 —
Harry Masters Other 211 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,457
Median age
44
Employment rate
83.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029