Riding profile

North Warwickshire and Bedworth

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

North Warwickshire and Bedworth: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

North Warwickshire and Bedworth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Rachel Taylor

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 38.2%
  • Conservative 25.5%
  • Labour 21.2%
  • Green 8.9%
  • Lib Dems 4.9%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereNorth Warwickshire and Bedworth 38.2%25.5%21.2%8.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +12.8 18.9% +6.6 21.7% −0.4 11.8% −2.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
5.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rachel Taylor Elected Labour 14,727 36.0
Craig Tracey Conservative 12,529 30.6
Paul Hopkins Reform UK 10,701 26.1
Alison Wilson Green 1,755 4.3
Guy Burchett Lib Dems 1,228 3.0

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,314
Median age
43
Employment rate
75.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029