Riding profile

North Warwickshire and Bedworth

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

North Warwickshire and Bedworth: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 40.5%
  • Conservative 25.4%
  • Labour 20.1%
  • Green 8.4%
  • Lib Dems 4.0%
  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereNorth Warwickshire and Bedworth 40.5%25.4%20.1%8.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +15.2 19.3% +6.1 21.8% −1.7 10.8% −2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

North Warwickshire and Bedworth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 41% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Rachel Taylor

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
5.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rachel Taylor Elected Labour 14,727 36.0 —
Craig Tracey Conservative 12,529 30.6 —
Paul Hopkins Reform UK 10,701 26.1 —
Alison Wilson Green 1,755 4.3 —
Guy Burchett Lib Dems 1,228 3.0 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,314
Median age
43
Employment rate
75.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029