Riding profile
Tamworth
The question
Tamworth: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Tamworth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sarah Edwards
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTamworth | 37.8% | 26.2% | 19.6% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +12.5 | 18.9% +7.3 | 21.7% −2.1 | 11.8% −3.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Edwards Elected | Labour | 15,338 | 35.0 | — |
| Eddie Hughes | Conservative | 13,956 | 31.9 | — |
| Ian Cooper | Reform UK | 11,004 | 25.1 | — |
| Susan Howarth | Green | 1,579 | 3.6 | — |
| Jed Marson | Lib Dems | 1,451 | 3.3 | — |
| Robert Bilcliff | Other | 290 | 0.7 | — |
| Adam Goodfellow | Other | 170 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029