Riding profile

Tamworth

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Tamworth: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 39.5%
  • Conservative 25.4%
  • Labour 19.1%
  • Green 8.2%
  • Lib Dems 4.6%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereTamworth 39.5%25.4%19.1%8.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +14.1 19.3% +6.1 21.8% −2.8 10.8% −2.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Tamworth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 39% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sarah Edwards

Sits with Labour

Since
2023-10-19
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
3.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sarah Edwards Elected Labour 15,338 35.0 —
Eddie Hughes Conservative 13,956 31.9 —
Ian Cooper Reform UK 11,004 25.1 —
Susan Howarth Green 1,579 3.6 —
Jed Marson Lib Dems 1,451 3.3 —
Robert Bilcliff Other 290 0.7 —
Adam Goodfellow Other 170 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,524
Median age
42
Employment rate
77.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029