Riding profile
Birmingham Erdington
The question
Birmingham Erdington: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBirmingham Erdington | 32.0% | 31.4% | 15.6% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +6.7 | 21.8% +9.6 | 19.3% −3.8 | 10.8% −1.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Birmingham Erdington, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 31% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Paulette Hamilton
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulette Hamilton Elected | Labour | 14,774 | 43.3 | — |
| Jack Brookes | Reform UK | 7,755 | 22.7 | — |
| Steve Knee | Conservative | 5,402 | 15.8 | — |
| Karen Trench | Green | 2,452 | 7.2 | — |
| Shaukat Ali | Other | 2,250 | 6.6 | — |
| Farzana Aslam | Lib Dems | 1,128 | 3.3 | — |
| Corinthia Ward | Other | 376 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029