Riding profile
Birmingham Erdington
The question
Birmingham Erdington: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Birmingham Erdington, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Paulette Hamilton
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBirmingham Erdington | 31.1% | 29.8% | 14.6% | 11.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.8 | 21.7% +8.1 | 18.9% −4.3 | 11.8% +0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulette Hamilton Elected | Labour | 14,774 | 43.3 | — |
| Jack Brookes | Reform UK | 7,755 | 22.7 | — |
| Steve Knee | Conservative | 5,402 | 15.8 | — |
| Karen Trench | Green | 2,452 | 7.2 | — |
| Shaukat Ali | Other | 2,250 | 6.6 | — |
| Farzana Aslam | Lib Dems | 1,128 | 3.3 | — |
| Corinthia Ward | Other | 376 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029