Riding profile
Lichfield
The question
Lichfield: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Lichfield, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dave Robertson
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLichfield | 31.9% | 27.9% | 21.2% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.6 | 18.9% +9.0 | 21.7% −0.5 | 11.8% −3.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Robertson Elected | Labour | 17,232 | 35.1 | — |
| Michael Fabricant | Conservative | 16,422 | 33.4 | — |
| Richard Howard | Reform UK | 9,734 | 19.8 | — |
| Paul Ray | Lib Dems | 3,572 | 7.3 | — |
| Heather McNeillis | Green | 1,724 | 3.5 | — |
| Pete Longman | Other | 322 | 0.7 | — |
| John Madden | Other | 98 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029