Riding profile
Burton and Uttoxeter
The question
Burton and Uttoxeter: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Burton and Uttoxeter, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jacob Collier
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBurton and Uttoxeter | 33.2% | 24.9% | 21.0% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.8 | 18.9% +6.0 | 21.7% −0.7 | 11.8% −2.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Collier Elected | Labour | 16,222 | 35.5 | — |
| Kate Kniveton | Conservative | 13,956 | 30.6 | — |
| James Bush | Reform UK | 9,611 | 21.1 | — |
| Anna Williams Westwood | Green | 2,119 | 4.6 | — |
| Azmat Mir | Other | 2,056 | 4.5 | — |
| Sarah Murray | Lib Dems | 1,663 | 3.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029