Riding profile

Burton and Uttoxeter

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Burton and Uttoxeter: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 33.6%
  • Conservative 25.0%
  • Labour 21.7%
  • Green 9.4%
  • Other 5.2%
  • Lib Dems 4.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereBurton and Uttoxeter 33.6%25.0%21.7%9.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +8.2 19.3% +5.7 21.8% −0.2 10.8% −1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Burton and Uttoxeter, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jacob Collier

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
5.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jacob Collier Elected Labour 16,222 35.5 —
Kate Kniveton Conservative 13,956 30.6 —
James Bush Reform UK 9,611 21.1 —
Anna Williams Westwood Green 2,119 4.6 —
Azmat Mir Other 2,056 4.5 —
Sarah Murray Lib Dems 1,663 3.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
114,123
Median age
40
Employment rate
86.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029