Riding profile

Meriden and Solihull East

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Meriden and Solihull East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 32.7%
  • Reform UK 31.2%
  • Labour 19.1%
  • Green 8.2%
  • Lib Dems 7.5%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereMeriden and Solihull East 32.7%31.2%19.1%8.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +13.3 25.4% +5.9 21.8% −2.7 10.8% −2.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Meriden and Solihull East, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 33% vote share, against 31% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Saqib Bhatti

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Saqib Bhatti Elected Conservative 16,792 38.1 —
Sarah Alan Labour 12,208 27.7 —
Malcolm Sedgley Reform UK 8,753 19.9 —
Sunny Virk Lib Dems 3,353 7.6 —
Shesh Sheshabhatter Green 2,929 6.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,008
Median age
43
Employment rate
78.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029