Riding profile
Solihull West and Shirley
The question
Solihull West and Shirley: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSolihull West and Shirley | 29.6% | 26.3% | 18.0% | 14.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +10.3 | 25.4% +0.9 | 21.8% −3.8 | 11.4% +3.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Solihull West and Shirley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Shastri-Hurst Elected | Conservative | 16,284 | 34.7 | — |
| Deirdre Fox | Labour | 11,664 | 24.9 | — |
| Ade Adeyemo | Lib Dems | 7,916 | 16.9 | — |
| Mary McKenna | Reform UK | 7,149 | 15.3 | — |
| Max McLoughlin | Green | 3,270 | 7.0 | — |
| Julian Knight | Other | 594 | 1.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Birmingham YardleyOther Toss-upOpen →
- Birmingham Hall Green and MoseleyOther Safe seatOpen →
- Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull NorthReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Birmingham Selly OakLabour Safe seatOpen →
- Birmingham LadywoodLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Meriden and Solihull EastConservative Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029