Riding profile

Solihull West and Shirley

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Solihull West and Shirley: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Editorial read

Solihull West and Shirley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.5%
  • Reform UK 24.0%
  • Labour 16.9%
  • Lib Dems 14.7%
  • Green 12.0%
  • Other 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereSolihull West and Shirley 29.5%24.0%16.9%14.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +10.6 25.3% −1.4 21.7% −4.7 11.6% +3.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
9.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Neil Shastri-Hurst Elected Conservative 16,284 34.7
Deirdre Fox Labour 11,664 24.9
Ade Adeyemo Lib Dems 7,916 16.9
Mary McKenna Reform UK 7,149 15.3
Max McLoughlin Green 3,270 7.0
Julian Knight Other 594 1.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,329
Median age
43
Employment rate
73.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029