Riding profile

North West Leicestershire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

North West Leicestershire: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

North West Leicestershire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Amanda Hack

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.6%
  • Conservative 26.8%
  • Labour 20.5%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.3%
  • Other 4.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereNorth West Leicestershire 32.6%26.8%20.5%10.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +7.2 18.9% +7.9 21.7% −1.2 11.8% −1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
2.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Amanda Hack Elected Labour 16,871 34.7
Craig Smith Conservative 15,859 32.6
Noel Matthews Reform UK 9,678 19.9
Carl Benfield Green 2,831 5.8
Alice Delemare Lib Dems 1,629 3.4
Andrew Bridgen Other 1,568 3.2
Siobhan Dillon Other 136 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,040
Median age
42
Employment rate
80.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029