Riding profile

North West Leicestershire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

North West Leicestershire: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
20%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.3%
  • Conservative 27.1%
  • Labour 19.3%
  • Green 10.7%
  • Lib Dems 5.3%
  • Other 4.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereNorth West Leicestershire 32.3%27.1%19.3%10.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.9 19.3% +7.8 21.8% −2.5 10.8% −0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

North West Leicestershire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Amanda Hack

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
2.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Amanda Hack Elected Labour 16,871 34.7 —
Craig Smith Conservative 15,859 32.6 —
Noel Matthews Reform UK 9,678 19.9 —
Carl Benfield Green 2,831 5.8 —
Alice Delemare Lib Dems 1,629 3.4 —
Andrew Bridgen Other 1,568 3.2 —
Siobhan Dillon Other 136 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,040
Median age
42
Employment rate
80.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029