Riding profile
Derby North
The question
Derby North: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Derby North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Catherine Atkinson
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDerby North | 30.5% | 30.2% | 19.5% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +8.8 | 25.3% +4.9 | 18.9% +0.6 | 11.8% +0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Atkinson Elected | Labour | 18,619 | 45.5 | — |
| Amanda Solloway | Conservative | 9,704 | 23.7 | — |
| Tim Prosser | Reform UK | 7,488 | 18.3 | — |
| Helen Hitchcock | Green | 3,286 | 8.0 | — |
| John Sweeney | Lib Dems | 1,822 | 4.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029