Riding profile

Derby North

UK constituency — England · Urban · east midlands

The question

Derby North: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.5%
  • Labour 29.2%
  • Conservative 20.2%
  • Green 13.3%
  • Lib Dems 6.3%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. BroxtoweLabour66 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereDerby North 29.5%29.2%20.2%13.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.1 21.8% +7.4 19.3% +0.9 10.8% +2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Derby North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Catherine Atkinson

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Catherine Atkinson Elected Labour 18,619 45.5 —
Amanda Solloway Conservative 9,704 23.7 —
Tim Prosser Reform UK 7,488 18.3 —
Helen Hitchcock Green 3,286 8.0 —
John Sweeney Lib Dems 1,822 4.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,362
Median age
38
Employment rate
75.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029