Riding profile

Derby North

UK constituency — England · Urban · east midlands

The question

Derby North: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Derby North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Catherine Atkinson

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.5%
  • Reform UK 30.2%
  • Conservative 19.5%
  • Green 12.0%
  • Lib Dems 6.5%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereDerby North 30.5%30.2%19.5%12.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +8.8 25.3% +4.9 18.9% +0.6 11.8% +0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Catherine Atkinson Elected Labour 18,619 45.5
Amanda Solloway Conservative 9,704 23.7
Tim Prosser Reform UK 7,488 18.3
Helen Hitchcock Green 3,286 8.0
John Sweeney Lib Dems 1,822 4.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,362
Median age
38
Employment rate
75.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029