Riding profile
Mid Derbyshire
The question
Mid Derbyshire: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Mid Derbyshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jonathan Davies
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMid Derbyshire | 28.6% | 27.2% | 22.5% | 13.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.3 | 18.9% +8.3 | 21.7% +0.9 | 11.8% +1.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davies Elected | Labour | 17,346 | 36.5 | — |
| Luke Gardiner | Conservative | 15,468 | 32.5 | — |
| Stephen Dean | Reform UK | 8,356 | 17.6 | — |
| Gez Kinsella | Green | 3,547 | 7.5 | — |
| Barry Holliday | Lib Dems | 2,361 | 5.0 | — |
| Sue Warren | Other | 315 | 0.7 | — |
| Josiah Uche | Other | 150 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029