Mid Derbyshire
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 50% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid Derbyshire | 28.6% | 28.6% | 25.2% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.0%+8.6 | 26.5%+2.2 | 22.3%+2.9 | 9.7%+0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 88,007 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 71.8% |
Current member
Jonathan Davies · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 4.0 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davies Elected | Labour | 17,346 | 36.5 |
| Luke Gardiner | Conservative | 15,468 | 32.5 |
| Stephen Dean | Reform UK | 8,356 | 17.6 |
| Gez Kinsella | Green | 3,547 | 7.5 |
| Barry Holliday | Lib Dems | 2,361 | 5.0 |
| Sue Warren | Other | 315 | 0.7 |
| Josiah Uche | Other | 150 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Derby North Labour, safe seat
- Derby South Labour, toss-up
- Amber Valley Reform UK, safe seat
- South Derbyshire Labour, toss-up
- Erewash Labour, toss-up
- Broxtowe Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated