Riding profile

Mid Derbyshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Mid Derbyshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.2%
  • Conservative 27.6%
  • Labour 21.5%
  • Green 11.3%
  • Lib Dems 6.5%
  • Other 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereMid Derbyshire 30.2%27.6%21.5%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.8 19.3% +8.3 21.8% −0.3 10.8% +0.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Mid Derbyshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jonathan Davies

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
4.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jonathan Davies Elected Labour 17,346 36.5 —
Luke Gardiner Conservative 15,468 32.5 —
Stephen Dean Reform UK 8,356 17.6 —
Gez Kinsella Green 3,547 7.5 —
Barry Holliday Lib Dems 2,361 5.0 —
Sue Warren Other 315 0.7 —
Josiah Uche Other 150 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
88,007
Median age
47
Employment rate
71.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029