Riding profile

Broxtowe

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Broxtowe: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Broxtowe, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Juliet Campbell

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.1%
  • Labour 26.5%
  • Conservative 18.9%
  • Green 12.7%
  • Lib Dems 9.1%
  • Other 4.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereBroxtowe 28.1%26.5%18.9%12.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +2.7 21.7% +4.9 18.9% 11.8% +0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
17.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Juliet Campbell Elected Labour 19,561 40.9
Darren Henry Conservative 11,158 23.3
Joseph Oakley Reform UK 8,402 17.6
James Collis Lib Dems 3,807 8.0
Teresa Needham Green 3,488 7.3
John Doddy Other 1,034 2.2
Maqsood Syed Other 388 0.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,719
Median age
42
Employment rate
75.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029