Riding profile

Broxtowe

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Broxtowe: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 27.8%
  • Labour 27.5%
  • Conservative 19.2%
  • Green 11.0%
  • Lib Dems 9.3%
  • Other 5.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereBroxtowe 27.8%27.5%19.2%11.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +2.4 21.8% +5.7 19.3% −0.1 10.8% +0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Broxtowe, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Juliet Campbell

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
17.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Juliet Campbell Elected Labour 19,561 40.9 —
Darren Henry Conservative 11,158 23.3 —
Joseph Oakley Reform UK 8,402 17.6 —
James Collis Lib Dems 3,807 8.0 —
Teresa Needham Green 3,488 7.3 —
John Doddy Other 1,034 2.2 —
Maqsood Syed Other 388 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,719
Median age
42
Employment rate
75.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029