Riding profile

Rutland and Stamford

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Rutland and Stamford: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 36.2%
  • Reform UK 25.9%
  • Lib Dems 13.2%
  • Labour 13.2%
  • Green 9.1%
  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Labour
HereRutland and Stamford 36.2%25.9%13.2%13.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +16.9 25.4% +0.5 11.4% +1.9 21.8% −8.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Rutland and Stamford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 36% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Alicia Kearns

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
21.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alicia Kearns Elected Conservative 21,248 43.7 —
Joe Wood Labour 10,854 22.3 —
Chris Clowes Reform UK 7,008 14.4 —
James Moore Lib Dems 6,252 12.9 —
Emma Baker Green 2,806 5.8 —
Joanna Burrows Other 409 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,813
Median age
47
Employment rate
74.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029