Riding profile

Rutland and Stamford

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Rutland and Stamford: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Editorial read

Rutland and Stamford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 36% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Alicia Kearns

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 35.7%
  • Reform UK 26.9%
  • Labour 13.3%
  • Lib Dems 12.5%
  • Green 9.1%
  • Other 2.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereRutland and Stamford 35.7%26.9%13.3%12.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +16.8 25.3% +1.6 21.7% −8.4 11.6% +0.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
21.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alicia Kearns Elected Conservative 21,248 43.7
Joe Wood Labour 10,854 22.3
Chris Clowes Reform UK 7,008 14.4
James Moore Lib Dems 6,252 12.9
Emma Baker Green 2,806 5.8
Joanna Burrows Other 409 0.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,813
Median age
47
Employment rate
74.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029