Riding profile
Lincoln
The question
Lincoln: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Lincoln, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mr Hamish Falconer
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLincoln | 30.3% | 28.6% | 18.6% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.9 | 21.7% +7.0 | 18.9% −0.3 | 11.8% −0.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamish Falconer Elected | Labour | 18,470 | 43.8 | — |
| Karl McCartney | Conservative | 9,677 | 22.9 | — |
| Jamie-Lee McMillan | Reform UK | 7,602 | 18.0 | — |
| Sally Horscroft | Green | 2,751 | 6.5 | — |
| Clare Smalley | Lib Dems | 2,580 | 6.1 | — |
| Linda Richardson | Other | 479 | 1.1 | — |
| Charles Shaw | Other | 278 | 0.7 | — |
| Laura Ashby | Other | 243 | 0.6 | — |
| Craig Marshall | Other | 80 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029