Riding profile

Rother Valley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Rother Valley: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.9
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.6%
  • Conservative 29.7%
  • Labour 23.0%
  • Green 8.1%
  • Lib Dems 5.1%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereRother Valley 32.6%29.7%23.0%8.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +7.2 19.3% +10.4 21.8% +1.2 10.8% −2.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Rother Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jake Richards

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
2.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jake Richards Elected Labour 16,023 38.5 —
Alexander Stafford Conservative 15,025 36.1 —
Tony Harrison Reform UK 7,679 18.5 —
Paul Martin Green 1,706 4.1 —
Colin Taylor Lib Dems 1,175 2.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,339
Median age
44
Employment rate
76.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029