Riding profile
Rother Valley
The question
Rother Valley: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Rother Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Jake Richards
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.1
- P(close race)
- 23%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRother Valley | 34.5% | 29.2% | 21.4% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.2 | 18.9% +10.3 | 21.7% −0.2 | 11.8% −3.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Richards Elected | Labour | 16,023 | 38.5 | — |
| Alexander Stafford | Conservative | 15,025 | 36.1 | — |
| Tony Harrison | Reform UK | 7,679 | 18.5 | — |
| Paul Martin | Green | 1,706 | 4.1 | — |
| Colin Taylor | Lib Dems | 1,175 | 2.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029