Riding profile

Rawmarsh and Conisbrough

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Rawmarsh and Conisbrough: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 39.7%
  • Labour 31.5%
  • Conservative 12.3%
  • Green 8.8%
  • Lib Dems 5.3%
  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereRawmarsh and Conisbrough 39.7%31.5%12.3%8.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +14.3 21.8% +9.7 19.3% −7.0 10.8% −2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Rawmarsh and Conisbrough, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 40% vote share, against 31% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

John Healey

Sits with Labour

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
20.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John Healey Elected Labour 16,612 49.0 —
Adam Wood Reform UK 9,704 28.6 —
Oliver Harvey Conservative 4,496 13.3 —
Tom Hill Green 1,687 5.0 —
Paul Horton Lib Dems 1,137 3.4 —
Robert Watson Other 268 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,482
Median age
42
Employment rate
68.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029