Rawmarsh and Conisbrough
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 80%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rawmarsh and Conisbrough | 39.2% | 36.4% | 11.0% | 7.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+12.7 | 22.3%+14.1 | 20.0%−9.1 | 9.7%−2.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,482 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 68.2% |
Current member
John Healey · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Healey Elected | Labour | 16,612 | 49.0 |
| Adam Wood | Reform UK | 9,704 | 28.6 |
| Oliver Harvey | Conservative | 4,496 | 13.3 |
| Tom Hill | Green | 1,687 | 5.0 |
| Paul Horton | Lib Dems | 1,137 | 3.4 |
| Robert Watson | Other | 268 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rotherham Labour, toss-up
- Rother Valley Labour, toss-up
- Barnsley South Reform UK, toss-up
- Sheffield South East Labour, safe seat
- Doncaster Central Labour, toss-up
- Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated