Riding profile
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough
The question
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 42% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
John Healey
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRawmarsh and Conisbrough | 42.1% | 27.9% | 10.5% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +16.7 | 21.7% +6.3 | 11.8% −1.3 | 18.9% −8.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Healey Elected | Labour | 16,612 | 49.0 | — |
| Adam Wood | Reform UK | 9,704 | 28.6 | — |
| Oliver Harvey | Conservative | 4,496 | 13.3 | — |
| Tom Hill | Green | 1,687 | 5.0 | — |
| Paul Horton | Lib Dems | 1,137 | 3.4 | — |
| Robert Watson | Other | 268 | 0.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029